Political Alignment and Housing Transactions
with Yongqiang Chu and Cong (Roman) Wang
Abstract: By matching voter registration records with housing transaction data, we find that voters who share the same political affiliation as the current U.S. president are 0.214 percentage points (10% of the unconditional probability) more likely to engage in housing transactions. Both buying and selling transactions increase, suggesting that reduced perceived economic uncertainty drives this effect. We develop a spatial equilibrium model predicting that these politically motivated transactions lead to lower house prices in aligned neighborhoods due to increased supply without corresponding demand increases. Empirically, house prices in aligned census blocks are 2.0% lower than in misaligned blocks, consistent with our theoretical predictions.
Presentations: UNC Charlotte (2024, 2025), FMA Semi-Finalist Best Paper (2025)
Press: Featured in The Wall Street Journal article, "What Puts Republicans in the Mood to Shop."
When the Train Never Comes: Property Value Impacts from the Announcement and Cancellation of a Light Rail Project.
The Professional Geographer (2025)
with Isabelle Nilsson, and Elizabeth C. Delmelle.
Abstract: Academics and practitioners have long been interested in the potential property value increases associated with new transit investments. The placement of transit stations is not random, however, and often they are placed in locations most likely to experience growth. Therefore, isolating the impacts of the new infrastructure from these confounding factors has been a challenge. In this study, we examine the effect of the announcement and subsequent cancellation of a transit project on sales prices, taking advantage of a unique natural experiment, the Durham Orange Light Rail Transit project. Using a set of closely matched treatment and control properties, we find no evidence of an announcement or cancellation effect on station-adjacent property sales prices. We find evidence, however, that prices in denser areas, closer to the city center tended to appreciate at a higher rate. These findings suggest a shift in demand for living in dense, urban environments, which is often where rail transit stations are located. The results are essential for urban planning as they show that rail transit is planned in growing cities with tight housing markets where properties, including those located in neighborhoods with planned stations, are already on an upward growth trajectory in terms of price.
Presentations: UNC Charlotte (2023)
Partisan (Mis)Alignment and Earnings Forecast: Evidence from Sell-Side Analysts
with Yongqiang Chu and Cong (Roman) Wang
Abstract: How do partisan beliefs impact how analysts price securities? We use voter registration data of analysts to show that analysts whose party is not affiliated with the president have significantly lower earnings forecasts than other analysts. This effect is neutralized when competition increases in the sector. We examine heightened competition geographically by controlling for battleground states during election cycles. Additionally, we test national effects by controlling for greater partisan disagreement as measured in news feeds. We provide evidence that the impact of partisan bias is lessened during periods of heightened competition. Our results are robust to various fixed effects and clustering. They suggest that partisan beliefs manipulate asset prices..
Presentations: UNC Charlotte (2023, 2024)